In 2015, we reported rapid growth and significant disparities in knee arthroplasty in OECD countries, particularly among patients aged ≤ 64 years, and projected a fourfold increase by 2030. Since then, both clinical practice and external conditions have evolved. This study re-examines trends up to 2022 and expands upon previous analyses.
Results:
From 2011 to 2022, the surgical volume continued to increase (CAGR: +2,33% [2,33; 2,34]; MAD: 37.700 [35.700; 39.600]), but more slowly than in the period from 2005 to 2011 (CAGR: +4,75% [4,73; 4,78]; MAD: 58.100 [55.500; 60.700]). Patients aged 64 years and younger now account for approximately 50% of procedures (CAGR: +4,46% [4,28; 5,81]; MAD: 32.300 [30.700; 33.900]), while growth slowed among older adults (CAGR: +0,61% [0,60; 0,61]; MAD: 5.400 [5.000; 5.700]). A one percentage point increase in the obesity rate was associated with a 1,1% to 1,9% increase in utilization; this association was more pronounced in older cohorts and in lower-income countries. COVID-19 led to a decrease of approximately 22%, or about 406.500 [386.600; 426.300 procedures, followed by a faster recovery in younger adults. Growth remains below our original 2015 forecast.